GDP、出口、能源消耗與二氧化碳排放之因果關係研究：以中國大陸和台灣為例

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Title:	GDP、出口、能源消耗與二氧化碳排放之因果關係研究：以中國大陸和台灣為例 The Causal Relationship between GDP, Exports, Energy Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from China and Taiwan
Authors:	蔣寧 Chiang, Ning
Contributors:	國際貿易學系
Keywords:	國內生產毛額出口能源消耗二氧化碳排放 Granger因果關係檢定 GDP export energy consumption carbon dioxide emissions Granger causality test
Date:	2013-06
Issue Date:	2013-10-15 13:47:52 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究以時間序列分析中國大陸和台灣於1982至2011年GDP、出口、能源消耗及二氧化碳排放四變數間之因果關係，得出實證結果為台灣在「出口對GDP」、「出口對能源消耗與二氧化碳排放」以及「GDP對能源消耗」具有單向因果關係，而「GDP與二氧化碳排放」則具有雙向因果關係。中國大陸則得到「出口對GDP」、「能源消耗與二氧化碳排放對出口」以及「能源消耗與二氧化碳排放對GDP」具有單向因果關係。依研究結果，建議台灣政府應持續擴增出口，以促進經濟成長；而為減少出口所造成的能源消耗與二氧化碳排放，應於能源政策面提高能源使用效率和開發替代能源，並提倡產業轉型為低耗能、高價值之服務業，如此台灣將能兼顧經濟發展及環境保護。而在中國大陸方面，宜降低二氧化碳排放與能源消耗將對經濟發展造成負面影響，故應增加公共建設，使用低耗能、低汙染之高技術密集生產技術，如此方能兼顧環保與經濟發展。 This paper applied time series to investigate the causality between GDP, exports, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China and Taiwan for the period between 1982-2011. Unit Roots Test, Co-intergration Test, and Granger Causality Test are applied. In Taiwan, the empirical results indicated the existence of unidirectional causality running from exports to GDP, from export to energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and from GDP to energy consumption. Also, the bi-directional causality between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions has been found. In China, the empirical results indicated that there are unidirectional causality running from exports to GDP, from energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to export, and from energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to GDP. The suggestions given to the government are to encourage exports by supporting some subsidies, developing renewable energy and clean energy, and improving efficient energy as strategy. The suggestions to China are as same as of Taiwan, especially enacting laws and regulations for the business which are high-energy consumption and produce a great amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Trade 7 Graduate Institute of International Trade ] Thesis

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