| 摘要: | 近十年來，由於氣候變遷，能源短缺問題日益嚴重，各國將發展大眾運輸列為主要因應策略，城市大眾運輸系統除了滿足民眾機動性與可及性需求外，更符合環境保護與減碳節能之要求。據此，各國城市以大眾運輸導向發展為主要政策目標，並預期能帶來永續發展各個面向的效益，然而TOD 推動歷經20 年，相關研究僅著重在TOD 規劃提升了大眾運輸旅次，其他如經濟發展、增加可居性、擴大住宅選擇與改善環境品質等政策效益，卻無相關實證之研究加以檢驗，然而大眾運輸的潮流已加速政府興工的腳步，但中央與地方政府財政支出，無法負擔運輸工程之龐大經費，進而引用稅金增額融通機制以挹注建設經費，然而都市在尚未獲得TOD 的效益時，卻衍生財政拮据的課題。緣此，本計畫將以二個年度分別探討大眾運輸導向發展效益之總檢驗，並從國際端、規劃端與居民端著手，第一個年度，以台北都會區與大陸湖北省武漢都會區為例，以線性迴歸模型、類神經網絡、動態多變數住宅與交通分派模式等方法，預測未來TOD 區內之大眾運輸旅次數；繼而以台北都會TOD 區為範圍，應用階層線型模型探討TOD 規劃元素、發展效益與財務自償效果三者間之關係；第二個年度則轉向探討居民端對於TOD 居住環境特徵的認知與滿意程度，應用信度分析、卡方分析及負二項模型，建立居民對於TOD 居住環境之認知體系，以及檢定出TOD 居住環境特徵與滿意度之關連性，最後，研提TOD 效益總檢驗下之規劃目標、發展策略與行動方案。
Due to the climate change in the past decade, the issue on energy crisis becomes increasingly serious while most countries are developing public transportation as strategies to cope with the situations. In addition to meeting public demand for mobility and accessibility, urban public transportation system must also stay in line with the requirement for environmental protection, carbon reduction and energy savings. Each country applies transit-oriented development as major policy objectives accordingly, in attempt to bring sustainable development in the benefits of different dimension. However the promotion of TOD has undergone 20 years of development and the relevant researches merely emphasize on enhancing the number of public transport journeys while omitting empirical studies for verification on other political benefits such as economic development, increase in habitability, expanding housing options, and improving environmental quality. Nevertheless, the trend of public transportation has accelerated the pace of governmental construction while the Central and local government expenditures could not keep up with the enormous burden of funding for transportation projects and choose to introduce the intermediation mechanism for tax increment financing, in order to inject funding into the construction. However, before obtaining benefits from TOD for the cities, issues on financial constraints have been derived. In view of this, the project intends to discuss the overall review on transit- oriented development in two years’ project, starting with international side, planning side and resident side. The first year will apply Taipei Metropolitan area and Metropolitan area of Wuhan, Hubei Province, Mainland China, using linear regression model, neural networks, DMV-DRAM to predict the number of public transportation journeys in the TOD area. The study then applies the TOD area of Taipei Metropolitan as the scope to discuss the relationship between TOD planning elements, development benefits and effects of financial self-liquidating, using hierarchical linear models (HLM). The second year of the project is shifted to the discussion on the cognition and satisfaction, application of reliability analysis, Chi-square analysis, and negative binominal distribution model from the residents towards the characteristics of TOD residential environment, in order to establish the cognitive system of residents towards the TOD residential environment and to test the association between the characteristics of and satisfaction of TOD residential environment. Finally, the project proposes the planning objectives, development strategies and actions under the overall inspection of TOD effectiveness. |
