近年來,股票走勢連動性為相當熱門的研究對象,但目前研究兩公司股價之間的連動之研究仍然較缺乏,兩公司股價如具有連動性且具有領先跟隨關係,則可依前者股價走勢表現預測後者股價走勢。
本研究運用序列比對方法,探討台灣上市公司股價之間的走勢連動強弱與領先跟隨的關係,並以台灣股票市場86個月的每日公司股票收盤價、最高價、最低價資料為研究對象,其中的85%為訓練資料用在建立連動關係與投資決策知識,另外15%為測試資料則用在驗證投資決策之投資報酬率。
經由實驗結果證明台灣股市上市公司之間股價走勢連動性確實存在,且有強弱之分,並經由本研究方法篩選出的1192個投資規則中,有1104筆投資報酬率為正,說明投資者依本研究的研究結果進行投資,有高達92.62%的機率會賺錢,本研究成果對於未來股票股價走勢連動研究具有啟發性的影響,投資者依據本研究方法的研究結果進行投資,能達到降低風險,獲取利潤之目的。
In recent years, stock co-movement is very popular object of study, however research on the co-movement relationship between the two companies stock price is still lacking. If the two companies stock price have co-movement relationship and leading or following relationship, then according to the former's trend of stock prices performance to predict the latter trend of stock prices.
In this study using sequence alignment method to explore the strength of co-movement relationship and leading or following relationship at Taiwan stock, and according to the information that Taiwan stock market 86 months of daily stock closing price, highest price, lowest price data for the study, 85% of the data is training data that used on building knowledge of the co-movement relationship and investment decisions, and the remaining data is test data that verify investment decisions of the return on in-vestment.
The phenomenon that co-movement relationship of Taiwan stock markets is exist, it is proved by this experimental results.In addition, it have different strength.Besides, by the study result of 1192 investment rules that have 1104 investment return rate is positive, indicate invest stock will have 92.62% probability to win. The study achieve-ment have inspiring effect upon the future stock price co-movement.Investors based on this study achievement to invest can avoid investitive risk and obtain investitive profit.