本文利用統計科學方法，建立集團業財務危機模型( Financial Earning-Warning Models)，考慮代理問題(Agency Problems)，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數，儘可能在公司尚未發生財務風險(Financial Risk)前，預測公司可能發風險之機率，達事前預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上，利用常態性檢定(K-S)、平均數檢定(M-U)，建立Logistic迴歸模型。實證結果發現，當董事長兼總經理，降低代理問題，預測正確率較高，提供投資決策參考；會計資訊影響公司績效之主要指標有償債能力、公司治理指標；提高利息保障倍數、設置獨立董監事，可降低風險發生的機率。研究建議，檢視降低營業成本與營業費用，降低利息費用，調整融資決策，可提高利息保障倍數，提高公司償債能力；儘早設置獨立董監事，公司治理能力增強，提高公司績效。因此，本文之實證價值與管理涵義為，集團業降低利息費用，調整融資決策，儘早設置獨立董監事，公司治理能力增強，提高公司績效，降低風險發生之可能性。
This paper primarily used statistical methods to establish logistic Financial Early-Warning models in groups companies, discussed the agency problem on whether management and ownership belong to the same person. That made it be possible to predict in advance the probability of groups companies experiencing financial risk. In the empirical analysis, K-S test, M-U test and logistic risk models were established, and to determine variables that can significantly affect corporate performance. Finding, In the case where management and ownership are combined, there had no agency problems and increased the degrees of predictive accuracy, empirical results suggested that the key performance indicators are the solvency and the governance, it had also been found that increasing times interest earned, and establishment of independent directors and supervisors that reducing minimize risk of the company. It had also been found that reducing operating cost, operating expenses and interest expenses can enhance the times interest earned and corporate performance. Therefore, this paper may be useful for researchers and practitioners who are focusing on reducing interest expenses, adjust financing decision and establishment of independent directors and supervisors, can enhance corporate governance power and corporate performance implementation.
