| 摘要: | 本研究以時間序列分析台灣及中國在1978到2010 GDP,FDI及EC三變數間的因果關係，應用ADF單根檢定、Johansen多變量共整合檢定、VAR模型或VECM模型以及Granger因果檢定，檢驗台灣和中國GDP、FDI和EC時間序列的因果關係。實證結果顯示，台灣的EC和GDP為雙向因果關係， FDI和EC為雙向因果關係，然而GDP和FDI卻無因果關係。大陸的GDP和FDI為負影響的雙向因果關係，FDI和EC也是雙向因果關係，GDP影響EC為單向因果關係，但EC和GDP無因果關係。結果說明，兩岸政府必需要有保護環境的有效率使用能源政策;此外，為減少能源消耗，兩岸政府對大量使用能源的產業需課以高額能量稅率。台灣可以發展以出口和服務為主的產業或者開發綠色產業。中國GDP和FDI負影響的長期和短期雙向因果關係，顯示資本聚集和出口導向對中國早期的經濟發展扮演重要角色，而FDI在後期會是合適的選擇。
China is a huge market in the world. At the present, economic growth in Taiwan heavily relies on economic growth in China. The GDP, FDI and EC in Taiwan as a developed country have upward increasing trends as those in developing China during the period from 1978 to 2010. There are likely inter-connections between GDP, FDI and EC of these two countries. Therefore, it is very important to comprehend the cross-strait economic status and to find the suitable FDI and EC policies to make excellent economic strategies for both countries.
The causality between GDP, FDI and EC in Taiwan and China were run by ADF unit root test, Johansen’s multivariate co-integration test, VAR model or VECM model, and Granger causality test. GDP, FDI and EC time series have long-run equilibrium interrelationships for Taiwan and China. In Taiwan, there is bidirectional Granger causality between EC and GDP but the causality weakly running from GDP to EC. Causal connection between FDI and EC is bidirectional running but no causality is between GDP and FDI. In China, there is negative effect of bidirectional causality between GDP and FDI, bidirectional causal connection between FDI and EC, unidirectional causality running from GDP to EC, but no causality running from EC to GDP. The results of this study show clearly that GDP and FDI are very important cause in energy consumption of Taiwan and China.
To promote environmental protection and to avoid environmental damage, a strong government policy in Taiwan and China should be formed to limit of FDI in energy-consuming industry. Policy makers of both countries have to find ways to produce and utilize their energy more environmentally friendly and efficiently. In addition, both governments can also charge foreign energy-consuming industries with higher energy tax than the domestic companies. Taiwan may develop toward export-oriented and service-oriented industries or develop green industries.
The negative effect of long- run and short-run bidirectional causality between GDP and FDI in China indicates that capital and export-led industry may play an important role in economic growth at the initial stage of growth, and that dependence on FDI may be a feasible option in the later period. |
