南海軍事情勢之研究－以中共空軍現代化後之影響為例

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Title:	南海軍事情勢之研究－以中共空軍現代化後之影響為例
Authors:	周國華
Contributors:	政治學研究所碩士在職專班
Keywords:	現代化 Modernization 新時期戰略任務 Military Strategic Missions for the New Period 防空型 Air Defence Type 攻防兼備型 Simultaneous Offensive and Defensive Type
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2012-10-25 12:28:34 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中共空軍的現代發展在近年來是有長足進步，希冀能透過本研究而能掌握對手真正實力、正面因素、負面因素以及障礙因素等，研究目的一：在於瞭解中共空軍現代化發展全貌，從而研判其實際的戰力以及未來發展趨勢；目的二：評估其對亞太區域安全形勢之影響；目的三：對南海軍事情勢方面能提供一個新的參考方向，並以敵為師；目的四：對我國未來的軍事發展與防衛政策能有所助益。南海潛在之區域性衝突，自後冷戰時期以來南海諸國即開始大量添購現代化海、空武器系統，以強化各國在區域內的軍事實力及政治地位。故後冷戰時期當大多數西方國家減少軍費支出之際，而東南亞諸國卻是少數軍事投資與軍事採購大幅增加的地區，企圖以軍事武力在南海主權問題上爭取最大籌碼。事實上，這些國家擴充軍備多置重點於購置高性能戰機、飛彈及戰艦現代化為目標，以圖在海洋開發及對臨近戰略島嶼的掌控，增加區域性的影響力。中共空軍在「新時期戰略任務」將由「防空型」轉向主動積極的「攻防兼備型」，突出加強空中進攻力量的建軍方向以適應未來戰爭的需要。中共空軍積極規劃裝備更新汰換，研製第四代殲20戰機、威懾武器及遠程作戰能力，以遏制霸權主義軍事勢力的突然襲擊，發揮先制攻擊的武力，以取得戰區上空的制空權，近期以來的南海情勢，以中共空軍軍事現代化後的發展，以現有的東風21型及系列彈導、殲10、11及蘇愷30等機型及數量，可防備越南、菲律賓空中、海上武力外，亦可遏制美國從空中或海上、海下的奇襲，中共空軍維持在南海的空中優勢已佔天時、地利之便。 Over the years, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force has made remarkable progress in its modernization. This essay attempts to get hold of the really military strength, advantage, disadvantage and obstacles. The purposes of this research are: 1) to know the clear picture of the PLAAF modernization so as to predict its future development, 2) to evaluate its impact on the security of the Asia Pacific region, 3) to provide a reference to the military situation is South China Sea, 4) to map out a plan for our military development and defense policy in the future. To deal with the potential conflicts in the South China Sea, countries concerned have started shopping spree of advanced sea and air weapon systems so as to maintain their military and political status. When most Western countries were trying to cut down their defense spending during the Post Cold War Period, the East Asia was the region where military investment and acquisition were greatly increasing. These countries were aiming at gaining the upper hand by their power supremacy over the issue of South China Sea sovereignty. In fact, the targets for armament expansion for these countries are procuring high performance aircraft, missiles and combat vessels, hoping to take control of the marine exploration and close isles to increase their influences in the region. According to the Military Strategic Missions for the New Period”, the PLAAF will adjust its strategy from “Air Defence” to active “Simultaneous Offensive and Defensive Operations”, implying that the PLAAF is fostering air combat power to meet the requirement for future wars. The PLAAF is earnestly engaging in phasing old equipments, developing the fo4th Generation fighters F 20, intimidating weapons and long range combat capabilities, whose purpose is to counter the surprise military attack from hegemonism countries. The PLAAF intends to take preemptive strikes to gain air superiority over the air space of the conflict region. For the current situation in the South China Sea, the PLAAF with current Tong Fong 5 missiles, F 10, F 11 and Su 30 fighters after its military modernization will be strong enough to deter Vietnam and the Philippine air power and maintain air superiority over the South China Sea.
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