| 摘要: | 在老人長期照護中心需求不斷的增加下，其空間逃生安全應該更受到重視，尤其老人長期照護中心中人員組成複雜，平時應擬定相關災害逃生計畫，當發生災難時才能將傷害減到最低。研究結果將有助於應用在各種有關高齡者的設施及機構的規劃上，讓高齡者能夠更舒適及有效率的使用，例如高齡者步道規劃、高齡者設施規劃及老人照護機構災害逃生檢討等。
本研究將參考文獻資料設定模擬參數。並分別對個體及群體的步行移動行為加以分析，再以多主體模擬系統(Multi-Agent System; MAS)建立老人長期照護中心空間逃生的動態模擬模型，將應用NetLogo軟體建立三個情境模組，由簡單到複雜依序為：基本模組、煙流模組及指標系統模組。且為評估模擬的結果，並建立時間分析模組及人員評估模組，分別針對有效避難時間、有效逃生時間、總避難時間、煙流分佈時間、人員安全率、人員受傷率、人員死亡率、人員傷亡率及人員滯留率等，加以評估以了解整個模擬的結果。
模擬結果顯示在逃生時增加有效的指標系統時，傷亡率從27.81%下降至10.39%，下降了17.42%；死亡率從4.21%降到 1.69%下降2.5%。模擬結果除了說明指標系統能有效減少傷亡人數及總避難時間，進一步分析後可以分別出各別空間在整個逃生模擬過程中的重要性。例如：本案例中一樓右側大廳及左側樓電梯間在模擬中擁有最多的累計人次，所以其在逃生過程中必須暢通，否則將直接對避難結果造成影響。
最後提出五點老人長期照護中心規劃建議，包括：(1)明確的逃生指標系統。(2)樓梯空間應盡量寬敞。(3)逃生動線下游端空間應盡量寬敞。(4)逃生動線上避免過多轉彎。(5)平面空間配置簡單明瞭。
The increase in the elderly long-term care center needs its space to escape to safety should be more attention, especially the elderly long-term care center composition is complex, usually related disasters should be prepared escape plan, in order to minimize the damage when a disaster occurs.
In this study, refer to the documentation to set up the simulation parameters. And pedestrian movement behavior of individuals and groups to analyze multi-agent simulation system (Multi-Agent System; MAS), dynamic simulation model will be applied to the elderly long-term care center space to escape the NetLogo software to create three scenarios module, from simple to complex, in order: the basic module, module and system of indicators of the plume module. And to assess the simulation results, and time analysis module, and personnel evaluation module for effective evacuation time, the effective escape time, the total evacuation time, the plume distribution, rate of personnel safety, personal injury, officers mortality, the rate of casualties and personnel retention rate to be assessed in order to understand the simulation results.
The simulation results show that the increase in the escape system of indicators, the casualty rate has dropped from 27.81% to 10.39%, a decrease of 17.42%; mortality rate decreased by 2.5% from 4.21% to 1.69%. The simulation results in addition to the indicator system can effectively reduce the number of casualties and the total evacuation time, further analysis could pick out the importance of individual space in the entire escape simulation. For example: in this case the right side of the hall on the first floor and left floor elevator in the simulation has the largest number of cumulative trips in the escape process must be smooth, otherwise will have a direct impact on the refuge results.
Finally, five-point planning proposals, including: (1) a clear escape system of indicators. (2) stair space should be spacious. (3) the escape routes downstream end of the space should be spacious. (4) escape move online to avoid too much turn. (5) flat space configuration is simple. |
