氣候變遷下台北都會區極端降雨災害脆弱性評估之研究

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Title:	氣候變遷下台北都會區極端降雨災害脆弱性評估之研究
Authors:	羅祥祐
Contributors:	巿政暨環境規劃學系
Keywords:	氣候變遷 Climate Change 脆弱性 Vulnerability 極端降雨 extreme Rainfall
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2012-10-16
Abstract:	根據IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)氣候變遷第四次評估報告(IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007)指出，全球災害強度及頻率已受氣候變遷暖化效應的影響大幅增加。臺灣位處於西太平洋颱風侵襲的路徑上，因此容易遭受暴雨的侵襲，且近年來又受到氣候變遷的影響，極端降雨的頻率也有升高趨勢，因此關於極端降雨的研究與預防近年來備受重視。脆弱性(vulnerability)是由國際間針對氣候變遷與環境災害相關討論開始，由過去文獻中得知脆弱性為一個特定的系統、次系統或系統的成份暴露在災害、壓力或擾動下而可能經歷的傷害，且由過去的脆弱性發展歷程中也發現人類活動與災害兩者間的影響極深。後續學者們也在相關研究中加入了GIS圖層分析，以幫助在脆弱性空間層面上的分析、了解，以及各地區在脆弱性空間上分布的差異性。本研究為了解都市地區在極端降雨下之災害因子以及評估極端降雨下之脆弱性及地區脆弱程度在空間上分布的情形，因此本研究利用文獻回顧蒐集國內外相關脆弱性架構及指標，以暴露、敏感性與調適能力三大面向及27個變數，作為指標架構基礎，透過台北都會區相關變數資料蒐集與主成份分析方法萃取出影響台北都會區極端降雨下的相關因子，並給予解釋與命名，其後利用因子得點評分，計算出各區域之脆弱性評估值，最後藉由GIS疊圖分析呈現極端降雨下台北都會區內各行政區域脆弱性在空間上差異，以提出後續對台灣都市地區之防災規劃與管理上具體的建議。 Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) released the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, citing the drastically increased intensity and frequency of disasters worldwide due to climate change and global warming. Located in the typhoon-prone Western-Pacific Region, Taiwan is inclined to suffer from torrential rains, and also from the increasingly frequent extreme rainfalls due to recent climate change. Therefore, studies and prevention of extreme rainfalls have drawn much attention nationwide in recent years. The notion of vulnerability was derived from international discussions on such issues as climate change and environmental disasters. Studies show that vulnerability refers to the potential harms sustained when a particular system, sub-system or component of system is exposed to a disaster, pressure or disturbance. While the progress of vulnerability research suggests a substantial effect of human activities on disasters, the ensuing studies included analyses of the layers in Geographic Information Systems (GISs) for better scrutiny and understanding of the spatial aspect of, and regional differences in, vulnerability (i.e., the spatial distribution of vulnerability.) The present study is intended to gain an insight into the disaster factors of extreme rainfalls in urban areas, and to evaluate vulnerability in the case of extreme rainfalls, as well as the spatial distribution of vulnerability among different regions. After examining vulnerability frameworks and indices put forth by researchers worldwide in a literature review, this study’s author built an index framework with 27 variables in three dimensions (i.e., exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity); extracted correlation factors that affect the extreme rainfalls in urban Taipei by means of information gathering regarding variables pertaining to urban Taipei and the Principal Components Analysis (PCA); explained, named and scored each factor; calculated the estimates of vulnerability in each administrative district; used the GIS overlay analysis results to show how urban Taipei’s administrative districts vary in vulnerability (i.e., the spatial difference) in the case of extreme rainfalls. Based on the above-mentioned steps, the author proposed feasible suggestions for the Taiwan authorities’ future efforts in urban-disaster prevention planning and control. Key word : Climate ChangeVulnerabilityExtreme Rainfall
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Urban Affairs and Environmental Planning & Graduate Institute of Urban Affairs and Environmental Planning ] thesis

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