| 摘要: | 全球化帶動的區域整合帶給亞太地區一個新的挑戰，由於區域各國之間存有高度異質性，造成在形塑區域網方面有著極大的困難，即使目前有類似「歐盟」的「東協」組織在亞太間逐漸形成區域網的初步基礎，但是目前仍然無法趕上歐洲組織的步調。中共近年的崛起，成為亞太地區的強權勢力，在其宣稱「和平發展」的口號後，致力於自身發展與發揮影響力至周遭區域，並希望藉此帶動區域間和平與穩定的發展，但是這也成為另一波政府組織與學界關於亞太地區「安全」與「經濟」的討論熱潮，同時也間接影響美國的世界「單極化」構思，中、美二強將亞太地區作為政治勢力的角力場，也為此地區發展帶來更多的不穩定因素。
「兩岸問題」成為冷戰後國際關切的焦點，它的複雜性包含了亞太諸國的所有因素，這也使得在處理過程上更為棘手與複雜，儘管中共一再強調是屬於兩岸之間的「內政問題」，但是從區域角度的觀點來看，兩岸關係的和平與否將會影響區域內的情勢變化，再把觀察角度拉至國際，假使中、美兩大勢力發生衝突，全球政經都會受到相當程度的衝擊，因此，如何避免兩岸發生軍事衝突成為區域及全球矚目的重要問題。亞太地區與兩岸關係息息相關，兩者在現存問題上有著類似的情形，諸如：歷史文化、政治思想、軍事、經貿等，上述因素是造成區域間共識難以達成的原因之一，兩岸問題亦是如此，固在尋求解決兩岸的爭議方面可以參考區域組織的「二軌協商」機制並加以調整，以做出最適合雙方最能接受的初步協商基礎，促成往後兩岸續談並增進建立雙方和平與穩定的可能。
兩岸自二○○八政黨輪替後再度重啟協商橋樑，其中又以「ECFA」為目前協商會談中影響最大的協議，然而雙方互信基礎尚未足夠，「ECFA」的簽署也造成了台灣政黨之間的猜忌與民間企業的憂心，儘管兩岸政府現階段僅以事務性協商為首要目標，但是在許多層面上仍然處處有著「政治」影子的存在，這也使得兩岸在未來協商埋下諸多變數。未來兩岸協商會逐漸觸及更深層的核心，如何穩定台灣內部政局以確保與北京的交流對話不致中斷是我們需要考量的地方。
本論文將從兩岸過去三十年的互動來探究過去雙方關係的演變，同時加入亞太地區東協的「東協區域論壇」與「亞太安全合作理事會」經驗來了解目前區域爭議的解決途徑，另外，針對中、美、台三方的立場及觀點來檢視兩岸關係的改善對於日後會有何影響。最後，將約略推論出兩岸協商未來發展趨勢與走向，並給予全文做總結，映證「協商」與「安全」將是主導兩岸與亞太區域發展的核心概念。
Globalization-driven regional integration has brought a new challenge to the Asia-Pacific region. Due to the high degree of heterogeneity among countries in the region, shaping the regional network is extremely difficult. Even though there are organizations similar to the EU and ASEAN that serves as initial bases of the Asia-Pacific regional network, they still cannot catch up with the pace of European organizations. The rise of China leads to its becoming a great power in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. In China’s claim of "peaceful rise", it is committed to its development and influence to the surrounding area. It would like to promote inter-regional peace and stability in development, but this has initiated another wave of discussion in governmental organizations and academia on the "safety" and "economy" in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, “peaceful rise” also indirectly affects the United States’ idea of "unipolarity"; China and the U.S. have turned the Asia Pacific region into a wrestling field of political force, as well as bringing more instability to regional development.
“Cross-strait problem" has become the focus of international concern after the Cold War, and its complexity includes all factors of Asia-Pacific countries, which also makes the handling process more difficult and complicated. Although China has repeatedly emphasized that this problem is an "internal affairs problem", from a regional perspective, cross-strait relations will affect the situation within the region; from an international perspective, if the United States and China clash, world politics and economy will suffer considerable degree of impact. Therefore, how to avoid cross-strait military conflict has become an important issue worthy of regional and global attention. Asia-Pacific region is closely related to cross-strait relations, the two have similar problems in current situation, such as history, culture, political ideology, military, economic, trade, etc. These factors are the reason why it is difficult to reach consensus among the countries in the region, and the same can be said to cross-strait issues. Thus, one could seek to settle the dispute by referring to the "two-track negotiation" mechanism adopted by regional organizations and make adjustments so that the mechanism can be the most suitable and acceptable one on the basis of the initial consultation for both sides of the strait, in order to promote peace talk and establish peace and stability. |
