本研究以Hansen(1999)縱橫門檻自我回歸模型，以9個國家為調查對象，探討自1996年至2001年平均每人GDP對犯罪率是否存在著上下不對稱之非線性關係。實證結果顯示，平均每人GDP對犯罪率存在雙重門檻效果，平均每人GDP門檻值分別為USD 25，122以及USD 25，677，因此平均每人GDP可分為三個區間。其中平均每人GDP介於USD 25，122和USD 25，677之第二區間與犯罪率呈現顯著正相關，在此區間平均每人GDP的提高將會使犯罪率提升。而社會秩序中的階級意識及貧富差距是與整體社會結構連動的，犯罪現象是社會結構變化的反應，在快速的經濟發展或經濟發展失衡時，社會秩序必定受到牽連。因此研究結果可供決策者及投資者在規劃相關政策及決策案時將相關福利配套措施列入考慮。
The study is structured according to the autoregressive Model (Hansen 1999) and its subjects include nine countries. This research analyzes the asymmetric non-linear relationship between the crime rates and GDP from 1996 to 2001 among nine countries in Europe, Asia, and America. The results show that the GDP has a double threshold effect on the crime rates. The thresholds of GDP are USD 25,122 and USD 25,677. Therefore there are three intervals for GDP. The second interval with a GDP between USD 25,122 and USD 25,677 is found to have a positive relation with the crime rates. The rise in GDP will increase the crime rates within this interval.
However, class consciousness and the inequality of wealth are related to the whole social structure. The phenomenon of crime is a reaction to social changes. When economic development of a society lurches forward too fast or too imbalanced, social order will be affected. The results of this study point to the need to incorporate social welfare policies into the overall consideration of economic policies.
