The Importance of Modeling Temporal Dependence of Timing and Quantity in Direct Marketing

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题名:	The Importance of Modeling Temporal Dependence of Timing and Quantity in Direct Marketing
作者:	Chou, CH (Chou, Chien-Heng) Jen, LC (Jen, Lichung) Allenby, GM (Allenby, Greg M.)
贡献者:	國際企業管理研究所
关键词:	customer relationship management customer scoring lifetime value covariance heterogeneity Bayesian analysis
日期:	2009
上传时间:	2011-11-30 13:23:16 (UTC+8)
摘要:	The analysis of customer value in direct marketing typically combines customer timing and quantity data into a single statistic that is used to compute lifetime values, rank-order customers for differential action, and identify prospects for cross-selling. However, current models assume that purchase timing and quantity decisions are independently realized (i.e., uncorrelated) over time given individual-level parameters. In this article, the authors show that customer value calculations can be severely biased in these models when timing and quantity are dependently related. The authors propose alternative models that lead to substantial gains in profitability in two direct-marketing data sets. The results indicate that the commonly held assumption of independence leads to an over-valuation of customer value.
显示于类别:	[企業管理學系暨國際企業管理研究所] 期刊論文

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