金融海嘯對中國大陸經濟影響之研究

CCUR > College of Social Sciences > Department of Political Science & Graduate Institute of Political Science > thesis > Item 987654321/20304

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Title:	金融海嘯對中國大陸經濟影響之研究
Authors:	蘇俊琦
Contributors:	政治學研究所碩士在職專班
Keywords:	金融海嘯金融危機次級房貸
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2011-11-07 16:13:18 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	2007年春季，美國發生「次級房屋貸款」事件，而引爆2008年的全球金融海嘯，美國Fed前主席葛林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)稱之百年一遇的金融危機，全球各國或多或少均在其陰霾下度過；回顧中國大陸在2008年初經歷了大雪災！5月12日又遭遇大陸歷史上規模最大、破壞力最強的汶川大地震！8月又成功舉辦了盛況空前的北京奧運！9月大陸的神舟七號載人航太任務，臻於圓滿！反觀美國華爾街(Wall Street)的金融投資銀行的CEO們在高報酬的誘惑下，鼓舞其承擔更大風險，追求更大的暴利；貪婪無厭，曝露人性的弱點，而運用高槓桿倍數對衍生性金融商品進行操作，各投資銀行之槓桿倍數高達25~30倍；其實高財務槓桿的操作，猶如建立在沙灘上之城堡，景氣佳時，可高倍獲利；景氣差時自然高倍虧損。然而，美國長期經濟榮景終究無法持續，引發流動性不足，資產泡沫化於是乎產生了，以次級房貸包裝之衍生性金融商品，損失慘重，對投資機構真是當頭棒喝，如排山倒海，一家家倒閉。美國為因應2000年網路泡沫及2001年911恐怖攻擊事件所引發之通貨緊縮的潛在危險，採取寬鬆貨幣政策，從2001年1月至2003年6月共降息13次，利率由6.5％降至1.0％，造成市場資金氾濫，市場流動性大增，導致房地產開始活絡；其中收入低及信用不佳者，則透過次級房貸業者取得購屋所需資金，惟自2004年6月起，美國為對抗通膨，乃連續升息，由1.0％升至2006年6月的5.25％，使房貸戶違約率竄升，終引發次貸危機。由此，更凸顯出美國政府金融監理安全防護網之漏洞及缺失。然中國大陸在金融海嘯中亦受到衝擊，而其復甦力道強勁，已顯示出其經濟大國之態勢，並提升其在國際舞臺的「話語權」；更由於大陸改革開放，積累了強大的物質基礎及中國人民之高儲蓄率，故能在金融海嘯中屹立不搖。面對失靈的年代2008！歷史會記載！投資者更畢生難忘，此乃不平凡年份！關鍵詞：金融海嘯，金融危機，次級房貸。 Spring 2007 saw the collapse of “Subprime Mortgage” in the US. The aftermath that followed lead to the Global Financial Tsunami. Formal US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan calls it the worst financial crisis in a hundred years. Almost every country around the world was affected and had to take the blow on some extent. In contrast, Mainland China was hit by a severe snowstorm at the beginning of 2008, followed by the most powerful and devastating earthquake in Chinese history which left Sichuan in rubbles. However in August of the same year, China hosted a successful Beijing Olympics and launched a manned space mission that shocked the world! The highly paid CEOs of the financial investment banks on Wall Street, tempted by high profits, take even greater risks in pursuit of greater gain, exposing the human weakness called greed. The high leverage effect imposed on financial derivatives yielded a 25 to 30 times the profit for investment banks, In fact, high leverage financial operation is without doubt building a castle on the sand. When the market prospers the profit naturally multiples, however on the contrary, the loss could be devastating. As a matter of fact, this prosperity of the American economy is short-lived, triggering stagnation and eventually the bubble bursts. The scale of the losses caused by subprime mortgage and its derivative financial products was astronomical. Investors were the victims who suffers the most from this disaster, bankruptcy declarations were at a historical height. In order to cope with the potential risks caused by deflation after Sept.11, 2001 terrorist attack and the burst of the World Wide Web bubble in 2000, America took to loosen its currency policy. From January. 2001 to June 2003 the interest rate was lowered 13 times. The rate went from 6.5% down to 1.0% during that period, leading to hyperactive currency circulation on the market, therefore turning the real estate market active. People with low income and those with bad credit records began to obtain funding for real estate purchase through the above mentioned products. However, from June 2004, this time fighting against inflation, America began raising the interest rate from 1.0% to 525% in June 2006, triggering discrepancies and eventually, the crisis. All this reveals the insecurity and instability in America’s financial system. On the other hand, China was also victim to the financial tsunami but its resilience and recovering rate is simply astonishing, which establishes China’s place as an economic power on the global scope. Moreover, China’s vast rich resources combined with economic Glasnost and its people’s high saving percentage, made the country unshakable during the recession. Investors would never forget that the first decade of the century was an extraordinary one! It will surely take its place in history as one of the worst decades involving economic and financial disaster. Keywords: Economic Tsunami, Financial Crisis, Subprime Mortgage
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Political Science & Graduate Institute of Political Science ] thesis

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