| 摘要: | 中文摘要
本文從觀察分析中俄軍事合作演變歷史過程著手，探討雙方合作策略及成效。繼而從現實主義聯盟理論，論證中俄軍事合作是否具備聯盟本質，及探究中俄為何只有合作而不正式結盟的原因。
從中俄軍事合作發展演變歷史過程，歸納發展出軍備交易、定期協商機制、軍事互信機制、軍事科技合作、軍事人員交流及聯合軍事演習等合作項目，區分三階段探討。第一個階段為1992-1999年，中共快速獲得俄軍庫存軍備，解放軍戰力亦快速提升。2000-2005年間，由於中共經濟發展，解放軍購進新型軍備。2006年後迄今中俄合作第三階段：因涉及仿製及軍備交貨、品質等問題，導致合作停滯。
進而分析雙方軍事合作，因應情勢逐漸從軍事技術合作擴展到目前的軍事合作領域，並評論雙方採行的軍事合作策略及成效。
在探討中俄軍事合作是否等同於正式聯盟，則由Bruce M. Russett對軍事聯盟特徵實證研究，整理出聯盟識別指標。進而回顧中蘇軍事聯盟，驗證其與聯盟識別指標的契合情形，繼而就中俄軍事合作互動情形，參照軍事聯盟識別指標檢視其異同程度，探討中俄軍事合作是否是軍事聯盟。再從Glenn Snyder的聯盟理論探討中俄軍事合作具有非正式聯盟的屬性，及其具備聯盟光環的定位。
在研究阻礙中俄正式聯盟的因素方面，分別從Robert A. Pape的「軟制衡」論、Patricia A. Weitsman提出從防範到牽制而結盟的理論、Randall L. Schweller國家制衡力不足的論述與Glenn Snyder「聯盟安全困境」的闡述，這些不同面向的聯盟理論新闡釋，說明由非正式聯盟轉換到正式聯盟，其間必須排除的阻礙因素，正為中俄未締結正式聯盟分別提供有力解釋。
關鍵詞：軍事技術合作、聯盟識別指標、軍事聯盟、聯盟光環、和平使命軍事演習
ABSTRACT
The thesis starts to observe and analyze the historical evolution of military cooperation between PRC and Russia, and then explore the cooperation strategy and results. I chose the alliance theory of Realism, demonstration of military cooperation between PRC and Russia is a military alliance or not, and to explore why the PRC-Russia cooperation without a formal alliance only reason.
PRC-Russia military cooperation from the historical process of evolution, the distinction between the three stages of discussion, summarized the development of the arms trade, regular consultation mechanism, military confidence-building measures, and cooperation in military technology, military personnel exchanges and joint military exercises. The first phase 1992-1999, the PRC quick access to Russia stock arms, the PLA combat capability is also improved rapidly. 2000-2005, due to the economic development of the PRC, the PLA buy new Russia armaments. So far in 2006 after the third phase of PRC-Russia cooperation: involving copying and arms due to delivery, quality and other issues, leading to cooperation stagnation.
What kind of relationship between China and Russia military cooperation? It is partnership or military alliance? To answer the question, this thesis applies the theory of military alliance both Bruce M. Russett and Brett Ashley Leeds, and reviews the true meaning of Sino-Russia military cooperation. The research finds out the PRC-Russia relation still away from “military alliance” at present, but military cooperation (especially the arms trade) always the most important factor in their diplomatic relation of both country.
From Glenn Snyder's alliance theory, explain the PRC-Russia military cooperation has the characteristics of the informal coalition, and bilateral relations between the two countries on military cooperation with Alliance Halo positioning.
Obstruction of a formal alliance between PRC and Russia factors, from Robert A. Pape’s "soft balance", Patricia A. Weitsman's theory observes that states have joined alliances to contain fellow members who are potential adversaries, Randall L. Schweller’s “underbalancing” theory and Glenn Snyder’s "Alliance security dilemma" theory. These new explanation of alliance theory, indicating that transition from the informal to the formal alliance obstacles must be removed, just as PRC and Russia did not provide instructions to conclude a formal alliance.
Russia’s geopolitical motives for friendship with PRC are clear. Whether both sides' military cooperation affects the Asian-Pacific area safety, especially the impact on balance of power of the Taiwan Strait, should merit attention and grind analyzing.
Keywords: Military Technical Cooperation, Alliance Identifier Indicator, Military Alliance, Alliance Halo, Peace Mission Military Exercise. |
