由於人口結構、家庭結構、疾病類型、國家責任等之變遷，長期照護已被視為社會風險，且成為21世紀各國政府及國民必須面對處理之重要風險課題。對於未來長期照護費用影響因素的掌握，乃是制度推動與永續發展的關鍵。影響長期照護費用的因素主要為社會經濟等結構性因素與制度性因素。制度性因素係人為可以控制，且其對費用的影響又甚於經濟社會結構因素。本研究以社會保險為制度架構，一方面以德國、日本進行比較分析，探討制度性因素對其長期照護費用的影響。再方面，根據我國現有經濟、社會與實驗社區之經驗數據，設定若干制度性因素進行多種變化模擬，實際估算2001-2046年期間ADLs失能者長期照護保險費用，及制度性因素對其費用的影響程度，以提供未來規劃我國長期照護體制財務面向之參考。
For every government in the 21(superscript st) century, long-term care has become an important issue of social risk due to changes in population and family structure, sickness type and state responsibility. In order to develop a stable institution of the long-term care, it is crucial to control the factors which influence the cost of long-term care. These factors include structural factors of social economy and institutional factors. For the institutional factors, they could be controlled artificially, and which has higher impact than others. Under the framework of social insurance, in this study we compared the long-term care insurance in Germany and Japan to see how institutional factors influence long-term care cost. In addition, based on current economy, society, and experience from experimental communities, we simulated to estimate the cost of long-term care in the period of 2001-2046, and to provide policy recommendations for long-term care financial system.
