| 摘要: | 口碑是消費者制定購買決策時，判斷產品良窳之重要依據，也是企業在新產品發展 過程中，建立產品知曉的重要工具之一。然而，口碑會隨著產品之擴散過程，呈現週期 性變化。例如，口碑會於電影預告片播出前出現，並持續到電影下檔後。因此，如同產 品生命週期一般，口碑也具有生命週期，且會受到不同國家的文化與消費者特質差異的 影響，呈現不同型態。 本系列研究計畫擬探討跨國電影口碑生命週期 (word of mouth life cycle) 之相關議 題，包括：1.建構各國 (台灣、美國、大陸) 電影之口碑生命週期，並比較其間差異； 2.探討影響各國電影口碑生命週期擴散之潛在前置變數，並比較其間差異；3.探討各國 口碑生命週期中口碑的質與量對電影票房之預測能力，並比較其間差異；4.調查各國口 碑生命週期各階段中的口碑傳播者特質，並比較其間差異；5.檢驗影響各國口碑生命週 期擴散之潛在前置變數對口碑生命週期各階段口碑傳播者傳播行為之解釋力，並比較其 間差異；6.檢驗各國電影之口碑生命週期是否會受到各國獨特之文化、環境與消費者特 質的影響，使得口碑生命週期擴散曲線存在差異。 本研究採深度訪談結合問卷調查方式，並選擇近兩年在台灣、美國、大陸等國家均 上映之電影作為研究標的，進而針對各國熱門電影討論區蒐集消費者散佈之口碑訊息進 行內容分析，並分兩階段進行調查。首先，針對在這些電影討論區散佈口碑者進行半結 構式的深度訪談，詢問影響其散播口碑之因素。爾後，根據訪談資料設計問卷題項，並 再次針對電影討論區之口碑散佈者進行問卷調查。待問卷調查後，本計畫擬採用 Bass 擴散模型來建構口碑生命週期，找出影響口碑生命週期擴散之潛在前置變數；透過迴歸 分析，檢驗口碑生命週期中口碑的質與量，對電影票房的預測力；透過 ANOVA，分析 口碑生命週期各階段的口碑傳播者特質；並採用時間序列之迴歸分析，檢驗影響各國口 碑生命週期擴散之潛在前置變數對口碑生命週期各階段口碑傳播者傳播行為之解釋 力，並比較其間差異，以及採用 Bass擴散模型，檢驗各國電影口碑生命週期擴散曲線， 是否會受到各國獨特之文化、環境與消費者特質影響。 在學術與實務貢獻方面，由於過去文獻並未探討口碑生命週期理論及其相關議題， 為解決此研究缺口，本研究發展電影口碑生命週期理論及口碑行銷策略，電影管理者不 但能藉由適當行銷策略刺激口碑成長，進而提升票房，更能作為未來新電影發展之口碑 擴散預測模型。再者，了解口碑生命週期各階段之口碑傳播者特質，能協助企業鎖定適 當之行銷標的進行管理。第三，了解影響各國口碑生命週期擴散型態之影響因素、文化 以及口碑傳播者特質上的差異，有助廠商制定導入新產品進入國際市場之口碑行銷策 略。
Word-of-mouth marketing is important reference for judging the quality of product when the consumer is making purchase decision, and it is also one of the very important tools to construct product awareness in the developing process of a new product of an enterprise. However, word-of-mouth will show periodical change along with the spreading process of the product. For example, word-of-mouth will appear before the playing of the prerelease of a film and will continue until the ending of the playing period of a film. Therefore, similar to the life cycle of a product, word-of-mouth has its own life cycle too, and it will display different form due to the influence from difference in culture and consumer’s characteristics of different country. In this series of research projects, topics related to word-of-mouth life cycle (which is abbreviated as WOMLC) of cross-country film are going to be investigated, which include: 1. to construct the WOMLC of films of different countries (Taiwan, USA and Mainland China) and compare differences among them; 2. to investigate the antecedent variables affecting the spreading of WOMLC of films of different countries and compare the differences among them; 3. to investigate how the quality and quantity of word-of-mouth in WOMLC in different country affects the prediction capability of the film box office and compare the difference among them; 4. to investigate the characteristics of the word-of-mouth spreader in different stage of WOMLC in different country and compare the difference among them; 5. to investigate the explanatory power of the antecedent variables, which affects the spreading of WOMLC of different country, on the spreading behavior of the word-of-mouth disseminator in different WOMLC stage and compare the differences among them; 6. to investigate if WOMLC of the film of different country will be affected by unique cultural, environmental and consumer characteristics of different country, which in turn leads to difference in the spreading curve of WOMLC. In this research, in-depth interview in association with questionnaire survey method is adopted, and the films launched in recent two years in Taiwan, USA and Mainland China are selected as the research targets. Moreover, word-of-mouth message as spread by consumer in the forum regarding the top films of different countries are performed with content analysis, and survey is carried out in two stages. First, the word-of-mouth disseminators in these film forums are performed with semi-structural in-depth interview to inquire factors affecting the spreading of word-of-mouth. Then, based on the interview data, question items for the questionnaire are designed, and the word-of-mouth disseminators in the film forums are performed with questionnaire survey one more time. After questionnaire survey, Bass diffusion model is going to be adopted to construct WOMLC in this project to find out antecedent variables affecting the spreading of WOMLC; through regression analysis, the the prediction capability on the film box office from quality and quantity of word-of-mouth in WOMLC is inspected; through ANOVA, the characteristics of word-of-mouth disseminators in different stage of WOMLC are analyzed; meanwhile, regression analysis of time series is adopted to inspect the explanatory power from the antecedent variables, which affect the spreading of WOMLC in different country, on the spreading behavior of word-of-mouth disseminator in different WOMLC stage, and in the mean time, the differences among them are compared too. Moreover, through Bass diffusion model, WOMLC spreading curves of films of different countries will be inspected to see if they will be affected by unique culture, environment and consumer characteristic in different countries. In the academic and practical contribution aspects, since there are almost no literature focusing on the study of topics related to WOMLC in the past, hence, to solve such research gap, WOMLC theory and word-of-mouth marketing strategy for the films have been developed in this research, films manager can not only use appropriate marketing strategy to stimulate the growth of word-of-mouth and to enhance the box office in turn, moreover, it can be further used as word-of-mouth spreading prediction model for the future new films development. Furthermore, the understanding of the word-of-mouth disseminator characteristics at different WOMLC stage can help the enterprise to lock on appropriate marketing target for management. Thirdly, the understanding of the differences in factors, culture and word-of-mouth disseminator characteristics which affect WOMLC spreading models in different countries will be helpful to the enterprising in making word-of-mouth marketing strategy for the introduction of new product into international market. |
